Oil prices increased on Monday, bouncing back from last week’s declines due to concerns about a global trade war. Investors seemed unfazed by US President Donald Trump’s latest threat regarding steel and aluminum imports.

Brent crude futures rose by 1%, reaching $75.40 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude also climbed by 1% to $71.72 a barrel.

The market had experienced three consecutive weekly declines due to worries about a global trade war. According to Harry Tchilinguiran, group head of research at Onyx Capital, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs affects risk appetite in general and has spillover effects into the oil market.

Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, escalating his trade policy overhaul. Despite concerns about tariffs dampening global economic growth and energy demand, investors appeared to be ignoring the threat for now.

Chinas retaliatory tariffs on some US exports were set to take effect on Monday, with no progress in talks between Beijing and Washington.

Oil and gas traders are seeking waivers from Beijing for US crude and liquefied natural gas imports. Trump mentioned progress with Russia to end the Ukraine war but did not provide details about his communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Sanctions imposed on Russian oil trade on January 10 disrupted Moscow’s supplies to top clients China and India. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China.

Citi analysts noted that sanctions on Iran and the failure to reach a nuclear deal are upside risks to oil prices, despite Trump’s efforts to lower energy prices.

Citi analysts forecast Brent to average $60 to $65 a barrel in the second half of 2025, as Trump aims to lower energy prices, potentially influencing the oil market negatively.