Oil prices in New York fell slightly on Friday, resulting in a weekly decline of over 3%. This drop was due to reduced concerns about supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the possibility of increased supply in 2025, despite expectations that OPEC+ will continue output cuts.

Brent crude settled at $72.94 a barrel, down 0.46%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $68, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous close before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Trading was quiet due to the US public holiday, with Brent falling by 3.1% for the week and WTI losing 4.8%.

Although there were reports of Israeli tanks entering a Lebanese border village, the ceasefire in place since Wednesday has reduced the risk premium on oil, leading to lower prices.

The conflict in the Middle East has not affected supply, which is expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency predicts an excess supply of over 1 million barrels per day, equivalent to more than 1% of global output.

Analysts anticipate that oil prices will be lower in 2025 compared to 2024. The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC and Russia, postponed its policy meeting to December 5 to decide on extending production cuts. There are concerns about a potential crude surplus next year, especially with non-OPEC+ producers expected to increase production. Analysts predict that Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, marking the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision in forecasts.